Last week daft.ie published its quarterly rental report which proclaimed that stock in the capital is at an all-time low since the data was first collected back in 2006. With just 820 homes to rent in Dublin on November 1st, stock levels, the report said, are down 51 per cent on the same date in 2020. It’s a somewhat surprising figure, given the experiences of the past 18 months or so. Yes, an increasing number of individual investors are looking to sell up and get out of the rental market; however, many other trends are also evident. These include the temporary collapse in the Airbnb short-term lettings market, the continued growth in the build-to-rent (BTR) market, whereby entire apartment blocks are made available for the rental market, and the shift to working from home, which led many city-based workers to move back to their family home, either in Ireland or abroad. So what’s going on? Data Well, the latest figures certainly indicate a sharp drop in supply; and, considering they are prepared on a like-for-like basis with this time last year, show just how deep the cut in rental units has been over the past year. However, it’s questionable as to whether or not the data gives a comprehensive insight into supply in the institutional investment market. This is because Daft compiles its information based on adverts on its website – but this doesn’t capture all of the stock available across the market. Typically, larger BTR developments only advertise a “type” of available apartment, as opposed to the actual number of vacant units, which can give rise to a potential undercounting. So far this year, for example, there have been a number of significant new launches, including Greystar’s Griffith Wood, a development of 342 apartments in Drumcondra, Dublin 9, or Rostrevor, another new BTR launch of apartments in Rathgar, Dublin 6, brought to the letting market on October 12th. And it seems that many of these new units are being excluded from the stock count. Take the example of Rostrevor. On daft.ie, three apartment types are available to let: a one-, two- and three-bed. According to Daft, these three units are what would be captured by its report when it calculates a total supply figure for Dublin – but given that there are 107 units in the development, and it launched only last month, the number of available units must be considerably higher. US investor Kennedy Wilson told investors earlier this month that its Capital Dock development in Dublin has a vacancy rate of 34%. File photograph: Dara MacDónaill / The Irish Times And what about Capital Dock in Dublin’s docklands? Owner Kennedy Wilson told the market earlier this month that the luxury development has a vacancy rate of 34 per cent. This means a potential 65 empty apartments at the development of 190 or so units. The Daft report, however, would have included only four units, as this is what’s advertised on its website. Again, then, a substantial undercounting. With housing so politicised, the need for accurate information has perhaps never been greater. Time for a change, perhaps. And this is what Daft hopes to achieve in its next report. Author Ronan Lyons says they have been working over the course of the year on capturing these multiunit rentals more accurately, and expects to issue a new form of stock/flow analysis that reflects, as best as is possible, the various scale of these developments. So don’t be surprised if if February’s report notes increased supply. Unaffordable stock The problem, of course, is that even if supply increases, it may have only a limited effect on housing problems. At Capital Dock for example, rents start at a staggering €3,300 a month, while at the recently launched Rostrevor, two-beds start at €2,000 a month. Supply is one thing; affordable supply is quite another.
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